• Global airfreight markets have entered Q2 2026 under sustained strain, with volumes weakening, capacity tightening and rates rising amid ongoing Middle East airspace disruptions and elevated fuel costs.
• Regional performance is uneven: Middle East and Africa exports fell 24 percent year on year, Europe declined 5 percent, and Asia Pacific slipped 4 percent, while intra-Asia trade grew 7 percent and Latin America posted 9 percent export growth.
• According to DHL Global Forwarding, rerouting around Gulf hubs is reshaping global networks, reducing schedule reliability and pushing up operating costs, with tight capacity and geopolitical uncertainty expected to persist through the quarter despite forecast 2–3 percent full-year demand growth.

Global air cargo markets have had a rough start to the second quarter of 2026  and there is little sign things are about to ease. Volumes are down, capacity is tighter than it should be, rates are climbing, and the Middle East disruptions that set this all in motion show no sign of resolution.

According to DHL Global Forwarding’s April 2026 Air Freight Market Update, global airfreight market conditions remain under pressure, with demand volatility, constrained effective capacity, and elevated rate levels driven by Middle East disruptions and persistently high fuel costs.

“Volatility is expected to persist into Q2. Tight effective capacity, high operating costs, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty are expected to keep air cargo markets unstable through the coming months,” mentioned in a report.

Capacity is tightening across key corridors. Global air cargo capacity fell 3 percent YoY MTD in late April, with the Gulf region experiencing the sharpest decline, even as Asia–Europe capacity increased as airlines rerouted services to bypass disrupted Middle East hubs.

The picture varied considerably by region, but the thread connecting every market was the same: the ripple effects of ongoing Middle East airspace restrictions, which have forced carriers to reroute services, extend transit times and absorb significantly higher fuel bills in the process. The sharpest regional impact was felt where the disruption was most direct.

Middle East and Africa export volumes dropped 24 percent year on year in March 2026, driven by airspace closures that continue to suppress Gulf carrier operations. Gulf carriers are still running below pre-crisis capacity levels, with reduced schedule reliability adding further uncertainty for shippers dependent on those lanes.

“Middle East disruptions are reshaping networks. Ongoing airspace restrictions and rerouting continue to suppress Gulf export volumes, reduce schedule reliability, and extend transit times across Europe, Africa, and Asia‑linked trade lanes,” said team.

European air cargo demand instead declined five percent year on year in March 2026, steeper than the global average, as the region absorbed the secondary effects of Gulf hub disruption. Carriers responded by shifting capacity toward European hubs and direct long-haul routings to reduce exposure to the disrupted Gulf transit points. But higher fuel costs increased operating expenses across the board, squeezing margins even as operators worked to maintain service continuity. In Asia Pacific, overall air cargo demand fell four percent year on year in March 2026, but the headline figure masks a more nuanced picture. Intra-Asia trade bucked the broader trend, growing seven percent year on year on the back of technology and consumer goods shipments — a performance that continued to anchor regional demand even as wider volumes retreated.

Capacity on Asia-to-Europe lanes declined as a result of Middle East hub closures and higher operating costs, and air freight rates on those corridors reached new highs as carriers applied emergency surcharges to offset the additional cost burden.

North America was the calmest part of the picture, with air cargo demand broadly flat in March 2026 as rerouted flows compensated for disruption elsewhere. Latin America did rather better, nine percent year on year export growth, supported by rising Asia-bound demand. The catch was that seasonal perishables exports tightened capacity on key routes and pushed general cargo aside, a pattern that repeats itself every year but feels sharper when the market is already this constrained.

“North American air cargo demand remained broadly flat in March 2026 as rerouted flows offset disruptions. Latin America recorded 9 percenr year on year export growth supported by increased Asia bound demand. Seasonal perishables exports tightened capacity and displaced general cargo on key routes,” mentioned in a report.

DHL Global Forwarding is direct about what lies ahead: tight effective capacity, high operating costs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty are expected to keep air cargo markets unstable well into the second quarter. Full-year 2026 demand growth of two to three percent remains the working assumption, supported by trade in semiconductors, artificial intelligence components and high-value electronics.

 “Air cargo demand is expected to grow by 2–3 percent in 2026, supported by AI, semiconductor, and high‑value electronics trade despite ongoing volatility and cost pressures,” summarised in a report.

The post Gulf Crisis grounds global air cargo appeared first on Air Cargo Week.