• Although Democrats have won control of both chambers of Congress, major changes to freight security are unlikely, given strong bipartisan agreement. Tariffs are also expected to remain largely in place, as reversing them would require significant legislative hurdles. The industry’s priority is greater policy stability and predictability.
• Air cargo volumes remain resilient, but tariffs and the removal of de minimis exemptions are affecting e-commerce growth, particularly in Europe and on China-origin shipments. Forwarders face additional paperwork, training, rerouting costs and supply chain uncertainty, with higher prices increasingly impacting US consumers.
• The new Congress could increase scrutiny of executive trade policy, pursue tariff-related hearings and strengthen international trade alignment. Industry priorities include more efficient customs processes, investment in cargo infrastructure, improved airport capacity and action on cargo theft.

US Democrats swept the House and the Senate on 3rd November, flipping seats long thought safe from Texas to South Carolina. For air freight, the early answer to what changes is: far less than the headlines suggest.

Few people in the industry know Washington better than Brandon Fried. For 21 years as head of the Airforwarders Association (AfA), he worked with Congress and the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) on behalf of forwarders, and handed the reins to Steve Smith on the day the votes were called. Asked whether a change of majority changes the room, he drew a line. On regulation, he said, both parties have different instincts. On security, they don’t. “I’ve dealt with both sides on freight security,” he told ACW, “and I find the Dems and the Republicans almost in lockstep when it comes to keeping the country safe.”

Tariffs however, sit on the regulatory side of things, and Fried isn’t expecting miracles. “I think Congress will be able to get some of these tariffs reversed, but not all of them,” he said. What strikes him is how little they’ve registered in the numbers. “It’s almost as though no one told the freight.” Volumes have held up. The cost has landed on American consumers instead, in higher prices and inflation. Fried said it is starting to hit demand.

What the industry is asking for

The sector wants a steady hand more than a reversal. Mammen Tharakan, the new Director General of The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA), said in a statement that what matters “is a predictable trading environment, efficient customs processes and ongoing investment in the infrastructure that keeps air freight moving”.

His predecessor, Glyn Hughes, put tariffs at the top of the worry list at the Air Cargo Forum in Miami last week, alongside “geopolitical tensions, conflict zones, the price of fuel or consumer discretionary spend going down”. “Everything that impacts the global economy impacts air cargo,” he said.

What Congress can actually do

The trade lawyers land where Fried does. Tariffs imposed under emergency powers were struck down by the Supreme Court in February, then reimposed under Sections 232 and 301, which the courts have upheld and which need no sign-off from Congress. Undoing them by law would take a veto override. Oversight hearings, subpoenas on tariff refunds and new committee chairs picking up trade in January are expected. Moody’s expects duties to stay “largely intact over the next twelve months”. (Source: Baker-McKenzie) (Source: DC Velocity)

Where tariffs sting

Boeing’s numbers show where policy has landed. Darren Hulst, Vice President, Commercial Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, told Air Cargo Forum that traffic is running over 5 percent above last year. E-commerce is the exception: growth that once ran at 10 to 30 percent a year has slowed to high single digits out of China and gone flat in Europe, partly down to tariffs and de minimis.

Forwarders feel it first. “This isn’t for or against tariffs,” said Smith. “We will adapt, and we’re always the glue and the malleable point within the supply chain. But that’s causing tremendous cost and unpredictability, and then you’re having to reroute lanes.” The end of de minimis means “more paperwork and more training”.

Bipartisanship

Fried’s advice to his successor: start with the committees that oversee TSA, Senate Commerce and House Homeland Security, then Ways and Means on customs funding. That is where a new Congress can get something done. The AfA backs the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act on cargo theft, which Fried expects to ride on the National Defense Authorization Act, and holds a Government Accountability Office study confirming airport cargo bottlenecks.

Smith plans to keep pressing on infrastructure. “It’s an amazing imbalance when you look at the fanciest new passenger terminal versus a cargo terminal,” he said in Miami.

A change in tone

If the tariffs are slow to move, the conversation around them may not be. Tharakan’s statement was addressed to both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue: “We hope the administration and Congress find common ground in recognising the role that trade and supply chains play in supporting jobs, businesses and communities.” US trade policy, he added, has “implications for supply chains well beyond its borders”. The new majorities are expected to push for closer alignment with Canada, Mexico and Europe, along with tighter oversight of executive trade actions.

Nobody is calling a quick turn. Fried, for one, is bullish on 2027. Tharakan’s test for both parties is simple: “TIACA prioritises conditions that give businesses the confidence to commit and invest in the future, regardless of which parties are in power”.

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