Growth was recorded across every region, but IATA warns that jet fuel prices more than double last year’s level are making it harder to ship cargo profitably. Global air cargo demand rose 7.7 percent year-on-year in September, according to data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on 29th October 2026.

Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), increased by 7.7 percent compared to September 2025, rising to 8.6 percent for international operations. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), grew at a slower pace, increasing by 2.7 percent year-on-year, and by 3.3 percent for international operations.

The industry-wide cargo load factor (CLF) rose 2.2 percentage points to 47.9 percent.

“Air cargo demand rose 7.7 percent year-on-year in September, with growth across all regions. Stronger global trade and manufacturing provided a supportive backdrop, while AI-related shipments helped drive another month of double-digit growth across the Pacific,” Marie Owens Thomsen, Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist of IATA said.

“The challenge is cost. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled compared with a year ago, and yields have not kept pace. There is no shortage of goods to ship, but doing that profitably in the face of persistently high fuel prices has become more challenging.”

Operating environment

IATA highlighted several factors in the operating environment behind the September figures. Global trade increased by 3.6 percent year-on-year in August, extending the run of consecutive monthly expansions to 42 months on a year-on-year basis. Global manufacturing activity also pointed upwards in August. The Global Manufacturing Output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased 0.7 points to 53.8, while the New Export Orders Index rose 0.5 points to 51.9. According to IATA, both indicators reached their highest level in five years and remain supportive of air cargo demand. Fuel, however, remains the pressure point. Jet fuel prices rose by 17.5 percent month-on-month in September and were 103.4 percent higher than a year earlier.

North America leads regional growth

All six regions recorded year-on-year growth in demand in September, though the pace varied. North American carriers posted the strongest performance of all regions, with an 11.8 percent year-on-year increase in air cargo demand. Capacity increased by just 0.8 percent year-on-year, lifting the region’s load factor by 4.3 percentage points to 43.9 percent. North American carriers accounted for 24.6 percent of industry CTKs in 2025.

Asia-Pacific airlines, which hold the largest share of the market at 35.8 percent, saw an 8.6 percent year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased by 4.9 percent year-on-year, and the region’s load factor rose 1.7 percentage points to 50.7 percent.

Latin American and Caribbean carriers saw a 6.7 percent year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased by 7.6 percent year-on-year, and the load factor fell 0.3 percentage points to 34.3 percent. The region accounted for 2.9 percent of industry CTKs in 2025.

African airlines saw a 4.7 percent year-on-year increase in demand, while capacity decreased by 1.2 percent. The load factor rose 2.7 percentage points to 47.0 percent. African carriers accounted for 2.1 percent of industry CTKs in 2025.

European carriers saw a 4.5 percent year-on-year increase in demand, while capacity decreased by 1.6 percent year-on-year. This lifted the region’s load factor by 3.2 percentage points to 54.6 percent. European carriers accounted for 21.4 percent of industry CTKs in 2025.

Middle Eastern carriers recorded the weakest performance of all regions, with a 3.8 percent year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased by 7.0 percent year-on-year, and the region’s load factor fell 1.4 percentage points to 44.0 percent. Middle Eastern carriers accounted for 13.2 percent of industry CTKs in 2025.

Trade lanes: Asia–North America out in front

Air cargo performance remained mixed across major trade lanes in September, IATA said.

Asia–North America recorded the strongest growth, with traffic up 17.0 percent year-on-year. The lane, which accounts for 23.5 percent of the industry based on full-year 2025 CTKs, has now grown for eight consecutive months. Within Asia followed, with growth of 10.2 percent, marking 35 consecutive months of growth. The lane accounts for 7.3 percent of the industry.

Europe–North America grew 9.3 percent, its fifth consecutive month of growth, and accounts for 13.5 percent of the industry. Europe–Asia rose 6.0 percent, extending its run to 43 consecutive months of growth. The lane accounts for 21.5 percent of the industry. Africa–Asia grew 2.6 percent, recording one month of growth, and accounts for 1.3 percent of the industry.

Middle East corridors under pressure

In contrast, Middle East-linked corridors remained under pressure, with traffic declining on both Europe–Middle East and Middle East–Asia routes. Europe–Middle East traffic fell 18.0 percent year-on-year, its seventh consecutive month of contraction. The lane accounts for 5.2 percent of the industry. Middle East–Asia traffic fell 10.2 percent, also marking seven consecutive months of contraction. The lane accounts for 7.4 percent of the industry.

Strong demand, squeezed returns

September’s figures show growth in demand across all regions, against a backdrop of 42 consecutive months of global trade expansion and manufacturing indicators at their highest level in five years. The challenge, as Owens Thomsen set out, is cost. Jet fuel prices were 103.4 percent higher than a year earlier, and yields “have not kept pace”.

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