Reduced flight activity at major US hubs is creating a tightening cycle in domestic airfreight and placing pressure on downstream supply chains. Carriers are shifting aircraft allocations, forwarders are adjusting procurement cycles, and shippers are preparing for reduced resilience during peak season. The constraints are already influencing routing decisions and operational priorities. The situation is occurring during a period of seasonal strength for rates and volumes. Forwarders expect the disruption to influence domestic movements first, with potential spillover into international networks if capacity withdrawals continue. The industry is preparing for a period of volatility in transit times, ground operations, and customs processing.

Routing decisions and rate dynamics

Domestic networks face the earliest disruption due to the grounding of aircraft widely used on US routes. Shippers dependent on high-frequency services for time-sensitive goods are exposed to extended transit times or rerouting. Forwarders are considering how much international capacity may be pulled into domestic loops if the reduction persists for several weeks.

“Mostly domestic cargo movement could be impacted as the MD11 aircraft type used by UPS and Fedex that are now grounded are primarily domestic routes for UPS and mix of domestic and international for Fedex,” Tibor Fodelmesi, Vice President of EFM North America, said. “Possible they will pull capacity from international routes to compensate.”

Rate pressure is emerging but remains modest relative to historical peak-season surges. Market data shows only incremental changes so far. The tightening is taking place during a period when shippers typically absorb seasonal increases as part of normal cost planning.

“According to market data, rates are up already by 2-3 percent compared to the week prior,” Fodelmesi said. “It’s not a major impact as we are in the typical peak season when rates normally rise anyway.”

Secondary airports may receive unplanned diversions if hub congestion intensifies. These airports carry less specialised infrastructure and could face processing delays if volumes suddenly spike. Warehousing operators and trucking companies may need to provide overflow support, adding extra cost to maintain flow continuity.

“If volumes shift to secondary airports there could be bottlenecks in processing, customs control procedures as these airports would be challenged to manage a large influx of cargo volume,” Fodelmesi said. “Support from warehousing operators and trucking vendors utilising their facilities could alleviate such bottleneck, but there is a cost to this.”

Inspection delays and cross-border constraints 

Reduced staffing levels at border agencies are adding new layers of uncertainty for cross-border cargos. Industries with high volumes of US–Mexico trade face potential inspection delays if capacity remains constrained. Automotive, agriculture, and machinery sectors are among those most affected, due to reliance on predictable clearance cycles to support production schedules.

“To my knowledge, the automotive industry, agricultural goods, machinery are major industries between the US and MEX that is exposed to potential delays because of staffing issues,” Fodelmesi said. “These flows could face measurable slowdowns during sustained shortages.” Fodelmesi said the exposure relates to inspection throughput.

Restrictions on certain Mexican carriers would compound the effect by removing lift from a corridor already dependent on stable connectivity. Direct service into Mexico has grown as new airport infrastructure has come online. Reduced access for Mexican airlines would influence both importers and exporters operating along these routes.

“Restricting capacity of Mexican airlines would significantly reduce the available capacity to manage this flow,” Fodelmesi said. “Reduced capacity would drive rates on these tradelanes higher.”

Forwarders must help shippers weigh trade-offs between speed, cost, and reliability when rerouting around disrupted hubs. Procurement cycles may need to shift, and inventory strategies may become more conservative. Decision-making under pressure increases the importance of accurate scenario planning.

“Those aspects of speed, cost, and reliability need to be prioritized by the end customers,” Fodelmesi said. “Procurement cycles might need to be brought forward or additional inventory ordered.” Fodelmesi said forwarders must present options clearly during periods of volatility.

Visibility gaps, limited regional capacity, and communication failures

Carriers may begin prioritising freight categories as capacity tightens, influencing which shippers experience the most disruption. Perishables, expedited shipments, and freight pre-booked under long-term agreements typically receive precedence. Smaller shippers without secured allotments may face reduced access during peak weeks.

“Normally, expedited or perishable and capacity bought in advance or allocated regularly has the priority,” Fodelmesi said. “Larger forwarders with major volume normally have capacity locked in well in advance thus have a slight advantage.”

Technology adoption remains uneven. Predictive analytics and real-time visibility offer opportunities to manage cascading delays, but current systems remain limited in proactive use. Many tools are deployed reactively rather than as early-warning mechanisms.

“I am not an expert in the area of predictive analytics,” Fodelmesi said. “As forwarders, i do not believe we anywhere near where we want to be utilizing real time visibility as a tool for preventing delays.” Fodelmesi said tracking remains largely reactive.

Regional carriers may see short-lived opportunities to pick up spillover volumes, but their structural limitations restrict long-term impact. Smaller aircraft and passenger-centred priorities limit the amount of displaced cargo they can absorb. The broader airfreight landscape is unlikely to shift materially as a result.

“Regional carriers are flying smaller airplanes and non containerized cargo and the priority will always be on passengers,” Fodelmesi said. “Any additional gained market share will not alter the airfreight landscape significantly.” Fodelmesi said the structural constraints are clear.

Communication gaps remain a recurring issue in periods of operational stress. Missed messages or incomplete tracking updates can add hours to transit times. The current environment raises the importance of manual confirmation for critical shipments.

“Any failures to transmit the standard eAWB messages or updating the tracking and shipment status could result in delays,” Fodelmesi said. “Freight forwarders need to be even more diligent and agile with their shipments and possibly manually track and coordinate shipments to prevent delays in current situation.”

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