• North America’s air cargo market enters 2026 still shaped by 2025’s tariff shocks, de minimis uncertainty and rapidly shifting e-commerce patterns.
• Leaders at American Airlines Cargo, Air Charter Service, DHL Global Forwarding and Breeze say agility is now the core strategy, with capacity redeployed faster, technology playing a bigger role in forecasting and execution, and new demand drivers—such as data centres and life sciences—reshaping network priorities.
• The year ahead is expected to bring continued disruption, tighter risk management, and more fragmented trade flows.

Air cargo sector spent much of 2025 reacting to disruption. Sudden tariff shifts, changing e-commerce patterns and unpredictable policy moves forced carriers, forwarders and shippers to rethink how they plan and move freight. As volatility became the norm, companies focused less on forecasts – and more on flexibility. Now, heading into 2026, the industry is adapting not just routes and schedules, but its entire approach to capacity, technology and risk.

The defining story of 2025 across the air cargo landscape was the sheer speed at which policy volatility reshaped trade.

“The defining moment of 2025 for the airfreight industry was the series of tariff announcements, suspensions and eventual adjustments that reshaped global trade flows,” said Greg Schwendinger, President, American Airlines Cargo. “When enforcement pauses occurred, the dynamic shifted dramatically. Forwarders began front-loading traffic into the U.S., driving a surge that defined much of the year.”

The impact was not just domestic. For a global operator like Air Charter Service, U.S. policy decisions reverberated through its international network. “The American economic policy since the start of January, with the second term of Donald Trump, has caused massive swings on the airfreight industry,” said Dan Morgan-Evans, Group Cargo Director, ACS. “Tariffs and de minimis changes have caused a shift in airfreight patterns and volatility in prices.”

“The most defining moment for airfreight this year has obviously been the whole tariff discussion in the U.S.,” said Henk Venema, Head of Global Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding. “With e-commerce being such a volume driver, that demand is now going in a different direction, and that dedicated capacity needs to find its way.”

The traditional seasonal rhythms of air cargo have been effectively dismantled. Agile carriers and forwarders are now rewarded not for long-term planning but for short-term execution.

“Airfreight is a very traditional industry that would typically plan by season… But with the volatility out there in terms of legislation changing week by week… the one who is able to change the flight schedule the fastest is the one that can mitigate a lot of the developments,” said Venema.

For ACS, the lesson was similar. “The airfreight industry is, by its nature, a fast-moving beast that we have to react to, but also try to get ahead and anticipate,” said Morgan-Evans. “Traffic lanes have changed considerably over the year – but with ACS’s network of 40 offices, we have been able to react to the challenges.”

American Airlines Cargo leaned into digitisation to drive agility at the operational level. “We are leveraging data more effectively than ever, using advanced capacity forecasting to identify optimal solutions for our customers close to departure,” said Schwendinger. “These combined analytics enable us to move additional freight and uphold exceptional service standards.”

e-commerce, pharma and the rise of data centres

Beyond tariffs, new types of demand are reshaping capacity allocation. E-commerce remains dominant—but it’s no longer the only disruptor.

“There’s now a second big hype, which is data centres,” said Venema. “Massive volumes are coming out of very isolated points in Asia, especially into the U.S. These are new trends you need to jump on. You basically have to cater for the legacy traffic, and be very agile and fast to develop solutions for the upcoming ones.”

DHL is also banking heavily on life sciences. “What I’m extremely proud about is the work I’ve seen happening in the airfreight arena when it comes to developing our life science and healthcare capabilities,” said Venema. “It needs the utmost care and attention, visibility, but also a very strong cool chain kept all around the world on every shipment.”

Breeze, a cargo insurer, is seeing that same shift reflected in risk demand. “High-value and sensitive air cargo — such as perishables, pharmaceuticals, and electronics — continues to drive demand for more granular, track-and-trace-enabled coverage offerings,” said Patrizia Kern, Chief Insurance Officer, Breeze.

All players point to the central role of digital infrastructure – whether in route optimisation, pricing, or risk management. But as technology accelerates, new gaps emerge.

“The cargo insurance industry has seen steady growth, driven by rising global trade flows and more accessible coverage for small and medium-sized businesses,” said Kern. “Multimodal air-sea movements have become more common, creating demand for more tailored insurance products that address transshipment exposure and the operational complexities of mixed logistics.”

That complexity is beginning to test the limits of legacy systems—both technical and contractual. “The industry has accelerated its digital transformation, embracing AI-driven risk analytics, IoT-enabled tracking, and blockchain documentation,” said Kern. “But underinsurance and gaps in multimodal air-sea coverage remain persistent risks, particularly for high-value or sensitive goods.”

For Schwendinger, the focus is clear: “The biggest opportunity has been the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence and advanced digital technologies. These innovations are transforming how we plan, forecast and execute, creating smarter, more agile supply chains.”

2026: What to expect

Heading into 2026, the only certainty is further disruption.  “Geopolitical developments will remain a major influence,” said Schwendinger. “Potential adjustments to tariff regimes and de minimis thresholds could significantly affect cross-border e-commerce flows. Supply chain diversification, nearshoring, and multi-country manufacturing footprints could lead to a redistribution of cargo flows across regions.”

At ACS, unpredictability is now part of the business model. “Reacting to what the market throws at us” is how Morgan-Evans described the biggest challenge ahead.

For Breeze, the concern is balancing growth with discipline. “The most significant challenge will be managing a highly volatile risk environment shaped by geopolitical instability, climate-driven disruptions, and shifting trade patterns,” said Kern. “Competitive pressure may further strain underwriting discipline.”

DHL sees a year of sector-focused strategy. “E-commerce may do less, but data centres will be a very big driver of volume,” said Venema. “Life science will remain strong. The perishable arena will grow as it always does and be a dominant player in some areas.”

While all players recognise the need for short-term responsiveness, network planning still matters. 

“We are excited about the expansion of our international network, fueled by the delivery of 11 Boeing 787-9 aircraft,” said Schwendinger. “This added capacity builds on the momentum of our current winter schedule, which features increased frequencies in Latin America and the highest widebody capacity since 2022.”

ACS is also expanding, using its global footprint to mitigate localised slowdowns. “Although the airfreight industry has seen a dampening of demand, ACS has managed to grow year-on-year,” said Morgan-Evans. “Our growth in offices and tapping into new regions has helped… it also means that we are more secure from regional variations in demand.”

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