• Global customs reform is reshaping cross‑border e-commerce and air cargo, as governments dismantle de minimis regimes and expand data‑driven enforcement.
• New PLACI requirements, rising tariffs, and per‑item fees are increasing compliance burdens and forcing airlines, forwarders, and shippers to rethink networks, capacity, and fulfilment models.
• As 2026 approaches, accurate data and regulatory readiness are becoming critical competitive factors across global airfreight.

Cross-border e-commerce is entering a new regulatory phase, shaped not by market demand or consumer expectations, but by enforcement and data mandates. That’s the central warning from Martin Palmer, Partner in Supply Chain Compliance, who believes 2025 was a turning point in how governments approach low-value parcels—and that 2026 could bring even sharper adjustments.

“The direction of travel in global customs policy is unambiguous,” Palmer says. “Low-value reliefs are being dismantled or monetised. Pre-arrival data is becoming the global default. No parcel will travel friction-free.”

A global rollback of de minimis exemptions is reshaping small parcel trade. The United States’ removal of its long-standing de minimis threshold was followed by similar reforms or consultations in the EU, UK, Australia, and parts of Asia. The goal: recover revenue and close visibility gaps in informal imports, particularly for e-commerce flows.

Palmer says the impact is already visible: “Parcel volumes have softened. Data requirements have expanded. Operators are re-engineering fulfilment networks to manage higher cost and compliance complexity.”

For the air cargo industry, the short-term outcome has been negative. Reduced shipment density and growing documentation burdens are eroding one of airfreight’s key advantages—speed.

“Tariff adjustments and retaliatory measures have become a defining feature of the trade environment,” he adds. “Airfreight traffic on previously high-growth eCommerce routes has contracted sharply, prompting a pivot to sea freight and intermodal solutions.”

At the heart of the transformation is the rise of PLACI regimes—pre-loading advance cargo information systems now operational in multiple jurisdictions. The EU’s ICS2, Canada’s PACT, the UAE’s NAIC, and the U.S. ACAS program require detailed shipment-level data, including HS codes and consignee identifiers, before cargo is even loaded.

These regimes aren’t just new procedures—they’re redrawing the logistics timeline. “Compliance is no longer a back-office function,” Palmer says. “It’s a frontline commercial capability.”

From 1 July 2026, the EU will introduce a flat €3 customs duty per low-value item (under €150), in what Brussels describes as an interim step toward a broader eCommerce reform package. The duty will be linked directly to item-level declarations via the EU’s Customs Data Hub and ICS2.

“Incomplete or vague data will increasingly lead to delays and holds,” Palmer warns. “Businesses must treat every parcel as a dutiable import, subject to classification codes, VAT, and handling fees.”

New Zealand is also adopting a similar stance. Starting in April 2026, it will implement a low-value goods levy for consignments up to NZ$1,000, replacing flat report fees with per-item cost recovery models. Australia and Canada are reviewing equivalent frameworks.

These changes are having structural effects across the logistics ecosystem. Airlines are scaling back dedicated freighter capacity on routes once driven by high-volume eCommerce. Meanwhile, ports and multimodal hubs are gaining importance as consolidation and compliance checkpoints.

“Warehousing and fulfilment models are evolving toward regional distribution and inventory pooling,” Palmer notes. “Businesses are adjusting to longer lead times and the end of near-instant cross-border supply.”

At the same time, regulatory volatility is influencing sourcing and manufacturing strategies. Retailers are accelerating nearshoring and “friend-shoring” models to reduce exposure to geopolitical risk and customs bottlenecks. Logistics providers, in turn, are prioritising data quality and route optimisation to offset higher costs and procedural friction.

By mid-2026, customs procedures that were once exceptions will become the rule. Item-level data, pre-departure clearance, and per-item fees are forming a new baseline. Parcel shipments will require the same diligence once reserved for bulk cargo.

“This is a regulated environment that rewards compliance precision,” Palmer says. “Those relying on legacy shortcuts will discover that mis-valuation, vague descriptions, and patchy classification now translate directly into delays, inspections, and fee shocks.”

Looking ahead, the consolidation of customs practices around data-driven enforcement suggests that 2026 won’t be a transitional year—it will be a litmus test.

“2025 showed what happens when enforcement, data, and politics collide,” he says. “2026 will decide who adapts—and who gets left behind.”

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