• Air cargo in 2025 saw record growth despite global trade disruptions, driven by US tariffs, rerouted Chinese exports, and aircraft shortages.
• IATA data shows airfreight volumes surged, fleet capacity tightened, and cargo remained a key profit driver.

Trade fragmentation, aircraft shortages, and rerouted cargo flows defined 2025 as a pivotal year for global air freight. IATA’s latest economic review paints a picture of a sector that responded with agility but now faces tightening structural constraints heading into 2026.

US tariff hikes were a central driver of disruption. Import duties surged to 17 percent this year—the highest level since the 1930s.

“Businesses were aiming to get their goods into the US before the tariffs kicked in,” said Julia Seiermann, IATA’s Head of Industry Analysis. This triggered a short-lived but dramatic spike in demand for fast logistics, with airfreight volumes in March 2025 reaching 40 percent above the same month in 2024.

The front-loading window quickly closed. From April onwards, US imports flatlined, then fell by 5.2 percent year-on-year in August. China’s exporters pivoted fast. While shipments to the US dropped by 15 percent, outbound volumes to other Asian economies and the EU more than made up the shortfall. “Overall, China’s exports grew by 5.8 percent compared to last year in this period,” Seiermann noted, citing Beijing’s newly announced trade surplus of over $1 trillion by November.

As Seiermann said: “Air cargo allowed businesses to adapt to this new trade policy environment… moving goods into the US quickly, and then rerouting them to other destinations as needed.”

If demand adjusted rapidly in 2025, capacity did not

Global aircraft production continues to lag far behind need. The backlog of aircraft orders now exceeds 17,000—around 60 percent of the active fleet and 11 times annual deliveries.

“Even under the expectation that production and deliveries will accelerate in 2026… normalisation is still unlikely to occur before the early 2030s,” Seiermann warned.

Freighter fleets were especially constrained. With fewer aircraft available, passenger jets are being kept in service longer, reducing conversion volumes. “Airlines that used to convert passenger aircraft after a certain time of service are now keeping them longer because they can’t get any new planes,” she said.

The average widebody freighter is now 19.6 years old. While utilisation has been pushed to historic highs, this approach is nearing its limits. “This strategy will, of course, reach its limits when aircraft really need to be retired,” Seiermann noted, highlighting rising maintenance costs and falling fuel efficiency.

Despite trade friction and tightening capacity, global air cargo traffic hit a record 25.4 billion cargo tonne-kilometres in October. Not all lanes fared equally. North America–Far East traffic declined by over half a billion CTKs, but Europe–Far East volumes jumped by more than 4 billion—evidence of major rerouting in global trade.

Looking ahead, IATA expects cargo traffic to grow by 3.1 percent in 2025 and by 2.6 percent in 2026. That compares favourably to projected global trade growth of just 0.5 percent next year. According to Seiermann, this resilience is driven by “the AI boom, demand for high-value and time-sensitive goods, and the ongoing structural shift towards e-commerce.”

Regionally, Asia Pacific and Europe led growth in 2025, with Africa and Latin America also showing positive trends. North America and the Middle East, meanwhile, recorded declines—North America due to trade policy effects, and the Middle East returning to normal following a one-off cargo spike linked to Red Sea disruptions in 2024.

On the financial front, air cargo remains a critical contributor to airline profitability. While yields eased slightly, they remain around 30 percent above pre-pandemic levels. Cargo generated 15 percent of total airline revenues in 2025 and is expected to contribute $158 billion in 2026.

“While this may look slow compared to passenger, the growth since the pandemic has been much stronger,” Seiermann said.

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