The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for October 2024 global air cargo markets showing continuing strong annual growth in demand.

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Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), rose by 9.8% compared to October 2023 levels, with international operations experiencing an even higher increase of 10.3%. This marks the 15th consecutive month of growth for air cargo.

Capacity Expansion Meets Rising Demand

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), increased by 5.9% year-on-year (7.2% for international operations). The rise was fueled largely by an 8.5% increase in international belly capacity, while dedicated freighter capacity grew by 5.6%, maintaining a seven-month streak of expansion. Volumes are now approaching their peak levels last seen in 2021.

“Air cargo markets continued their strong performance in October, with demand rising 9.8% year-on-year and capacity up 5.9%,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “Global air cargo yields, including surcharges, are also on the rise—up 10.6% on 2023 and 49% compared to 2019 levels.”

Outlook for 2025: Cautious Optimism

Despite the strong performance, Walsh urged caution when looking ahead to 2025. The recently announced plans by the incoming Trump Administration to impose significant tariffs on key trading partners—Canada, China, and Mexico—could disrupt global supply chains and dampen consumer confidence.

“The air cargo industry’s proven adaptability to rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic situations will likely be tested as these policies unfold,” Walsh added.

Operating Environment Insights

Several key factors contributed to the operating environment in October 2024:

• Industrial Production: Global industrial production rose by 1.6% year-on-year in September, while global goods trade increased by 2.4%, marking six consecutive months of growth. Much of this increase is attributed to businesses stockpiling inventory in anticipation of potential disruptions, such as the US port strike.
• Manufacturing Activity: Global manufacturing output rebounded, with the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing exceeding the 50-mark, indicating growth. However, new export orders remained below the 50-mark, reflecting continued uncertainty in global trade.
• Inflation Trends: Inflation trends varied globally in October. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 2.58%, ending a six-month decline. In the EU, inflation rose to 2.33%, while China experienced a decline to 0.29%, raising concerns about a potential economic slowdown.

Resilient Industry, Uncertain Future

With 2024 shaping up as a strong year for air cargo, the industry faces the dual challenge of sustaining growth while navigating potential geopolitical and economic disruptions. IATA’s data highlights the resilience of the air cargo sector, but the future may demand even greater adaptability as global dynamics continue to evolve.

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