• Aviation expert Wouter Dewulf outlines seven major shifts set to redefine European air travel in 2026, highlighting structural changes across airlines, airports, alliances, border processes, fleet strategy, and global competition.
• Dewulf foresees Europe moving toward a “K-shaped” market where premium cabins grow while budget travellers face more unbundled offerings. 

Europe’s aviation sector is heading into 2026 with structural changes that will reshape airline networks, airport operations and competitive dynamics across the continent, according to Wouter Dewulf, Professor of Air Transport Management and Economics at the University of Antwerp.

1. Europe goes K-shaped: premium rises, budget gets squeezed

Airlines are sharpening their segmentation models. Premium cabins and extra-legroom “economy+” products expand, while traditional economy becomes increasingly unbundled and rule-driven.

As Dewulf puts it, airlines are shifting toward “more premium, more extra-legroom ‘economy+’, and more paid upgrades at every step.”

2. Airports become the new high street – and speed is the currency

Post-security spaces continue to evolve, but the decisive differentiator becomes processing time: security, passport control, queue management and biometrics.

“Reliability beats marble floors,” Dewulf notes, pointing to the competitive gap among European hubs.

Faster passenger processing indirectly supports cargo by improving overall hub fluidity and reducing congestion that can delay aircraft turnarounds—particularly relevant for mixed-fleet carriers.

3. The great rewiring: alliances, mergers and loyalty shifts

2026 is set to bring consolidation that will be felt by passengers and freight alike. Dewulf expects SAS to move deeper into the Air France–KLM sphere, ITA Airways to be integrated further into the Lufthansa Group, and TAP Air Portugal to attract strong acquisition interest.

4. Biometrics, authorisations and friction: the new border reality

Digital border processes are becoming routine, though uneven implementation will continue to cause bottlenecks.

Dewulf warns of a “higher connection risk” for travellers as new systems embed, particularly for non-EU citizens.

5. Capacity is the new currency

Europe enters 2026 with tight fleet availability driven by engine issues, long MRO queues and delayed deliveries. Airlines will continue to allocate capacity carefully while defending yields.

Dewulf highlights the rise of “niche long-thin routes that bypass hubs,” created through the expansion of narrowbody long-haul.

6. Saudi Arabia enters the big league

The Middle East’s competitive landscape shifts from ME3 to ME4 as Riyadh Air accelerates. Dewulf says 2026 is the year the Saudi ambition becomes “operational, not aspirational.”

The result: a more competitive transfer environment for Europe–Asia and Europe–Africa flows, with Saudi Arabia positioning itself as a viable alternative to Dubai and Doha.

7. The EU–China corridor gets rewritten

With Russian airspace restrictions still asymmetric, Chinese carriers maintain a structural advantage on many Europe–China routes.

Dewulf expects more capacity pointed toward Europe, driven by “sharper pricing, more frequencies from Chinese gateways, and Chinese airlines gaining share on the EU–China corridor.”

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