Escalating conflict in the Middle East is beginning to ripple through global freight markets, with air cargo networks experiencing immediate disruption as key Gulf aviation hubs suspend operations and airlines scramble to reroute capacity.

According to analysis from Freightos, the closure of airspace and airports across parts of the Gulf has grounded aircraft operated by major regional carriers including Emirates SkyCargo, Qatar Airways Cargo and Etihad Cargo. Together, these airlines represent approximately 13 percent of global air cargo capacity, underscoring the scale of the disruption.

Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, said the conflict is already causing widespread logistical challenges that could expand further if the situation continues.

“The US-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliation targeting multiple countries in the area since the weekend are driving significant logistics disruptions in the region which could start to be felt more broadly if the conflict stretches on,” Levine said.

The impact extends beyond cargo moving directly to or from the Middle East. Gulf hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha function as key intercontinental transit points connecting Asia, Europe and Africa.

Freightos noted that these carriers collectively account for around a quarter of all China–Europe air cargo capacity, meaning their temporary suspension is already affecting global supply chains.

With flights cancelled and hubs inaccessible, airlines and forwarders are rapidly seeking alternatives. Early signs suggest that some carriers are increasing direct flights between Asia and Europe to compensate for lost connectivity.

At the same time, freight forwarders are beginning to secure additional charter capacity to maintain supply chains.

According to Kuehne + Nagel, forwarders are already chartering direct Far East–West flights to replace missing lift from Gulf carriers. The company also warned that cargo backlogs in Asia could begin building by the end of the week as shipments bound for Europe and the United States struggle to find available capacity.

Airfreight rates begin to climb

The disruption is already reflected in air cargo pricing.

Data from the Freightos Air Index shows that rates on several key lanes have begun to increase since the start of the conflict. Prices from South East Asia to Europe have risen more than 6 percent to $3.82 per kilogram, while South Asia to Europe rates have increased by around 3 percent.

Transpacific rates are also moving higher. China–United States prices have climbed 15 percent to $6.90 per kilogram, although analysts note that part of the increase may also reflect the traditional post–Lunar New Year rebound in volumes.

Shipments from the Middle East to Europe have also risen, with rates increasing 8 percent to $1.62 per kilogram.

The air cargo disruption is unfolding alongside significant turmoil in ocean shipping.

Iranian attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz have effectively closed the critical maritime corridor, which typically handles 2–3 percent of global container volumes. In response, several major shipping lines have suspended bookings to Gulf ports.

Hapag-Lloyd and MSC have halted bookings in both directions, including cargo to ports in Oman and the UAE. CMA CGM has suspended all Persian Gulf bookings, while Maersk has paused regional reefer shipments and cargo moving from India to the Gulf.

Although container market impacts remain mostly regional for now, diverted cargo and cancelled sailings are already causing containers to accumulate at origin ports and transshipment hubs.

Levine said the longer vessels remain stranded or diverted, the more likely global shipping networks will feel the effects.

“The longer these vessels and equipment are out of circulation, the more likely that reduction will be felt in terms of available capacity and equipment out of the Far East,” he explained.

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