• Global air cargo demand rose 7 percent year-on-year in February 2026, led by Asia with 14 percent growth, though volumes declined 6 percent in Week 11 as disruptions intensified.
• Global capacity fell 7 percent month-to-date, with Gulf carrier share dropping sharply from 12 percent to 4 percent amid Middle East airspace closures.
• Rates increased as a result, with global air cargo prices rising 7 percent week-on-week and spot rates up 6 percent due to tighter capacity and longer routings.

Airspace closures across the Middle East have triggered a sharp shift in global air cargo flows, with Gulf carriers seeing their capacity share fall from 12 percent to just 4 percent. The sudden drop highlights how quickly geopolitical disruption can reshape network dynamics, forcing airlines to reroute capacity and rebalance operations across key trade lanes, according to DHL’s latest market update.

Global demand remained relatively strong at the start of 2026, with air cargo volumes rising 7 percent year-on-year in February. Asia continues to anchor this growth, recording a 14 percent increase and reinforcing its central role in global supply chains. However, momentum has begun to soften, with volumes declining 6 percent year-on-year in Week 11 as the market reacted to reduced capacity and escalating disruption linked to the Middle East crisis.

“Global air cargo capacity fell 22 percent on 1 March due to GCC airspace closures and Asia–Middle East capacity is down 50 percent. Qatar Airways and Emirates Cargo’s global capacity share dropped from 12 percent to 4 percent,” says in the report.

Capacity constraints are now becoming a defining feature of the market. DHL data shows global air cargo capacity fell 7 percent year-on-year month-to-date as of 24 March, with the Gulf region at the centre of the disruption. Airspace closures and operational restrictions have significantly reduced available lift, forcing carriers to adjust networks and redeploy aircraft.

This shift is particularly visible on Asia–Europe routes, where capacity has increased by 29 percent year-on-year as airlines attempt to offset lost Middle East connectivity. However, this is largely a compensatory adjustment rather than an expansion of overall market capacity.

These disruptions are feeding directly into pricing dynamics. Average global air cargo rates rose 7 percent week-on-week in Week 12 to $2.84 per kilogram, while spot rates increased 6 percent to $3.38 per kilogram. Rising jet fuel costs and longer routings around restricted airspace are adding further upward pressure on rates.

Regionally, Europe is facing continued operational strain, with airspace constraints limiting booking availability and creating backlogs. In Asia, stronger China-driven flows and additional freighter capacity have helped stabilise some corridors, but congestion remains, with backlogs of up to seven to ten days at major hubs. Meanwhile, the Americas are experiencing volatility on Middle East-linked routes, alongside tightening capacity to India and Southeast Asia.

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