• Global air cargo demand rose by 5 percent year-on-year in November 2025, continuing a stronger-than-expected peak season trend. This followed 3 percent and 4 percent gains in September and October, putting the industry on track for 4 percent annual growth. However, global spot rates dropped 5 percent year-on-year to USD 2.73/kg as carriers pursued market share over pricing power.
• While Northeast Asia routes showed resilience due to strategic capacity shifts, Southeast Asia lanes saw double-digit rate declines linked to regulatory pressures and increased supply. Europe–North America also recorded its first annual rate drop of 8 percent.

Christmas came early for global air cargo volumes in November, with a further 5 percent year-on-year boost in demand adding to seasonal cheer. However, the sector’s e-commerce “growth engine” of the past two years is slowing, according to the latest analysis from Xeneta.

Despite a flat outlook heading into the final months of 2025, demand surprised to the upside, with growth of 3 percent in September and 4 percent in October. November’s performance extended this trend, putting the market on track to close 2025 with 4 percent annual growth—although concerns remain over what’s ahead in 2026.

Capacity growth in November largely kept pace with demand. However, the increase in supply over the year has still lagged behind the surge in demand. Despite this, spot rates continued to soften. November saw a 5 percent year-on-year drop in global air cargo spot rates, landing at USD 2.73 per kg, worse than the 3 percent decline recorded in October.

This suggests carriers are prioritising market share over price discipline, leading to squeezed yields in an already competitive market. Month-on-month, spot rates increased 6 percent in November, lower than the 9 percent jump seen during the same period in 2024.

All major lanes report lower year-on-year spot rates

In November, all major trade lanes recorded lower air cargo spot rates compared to the previous year. The Europe–North America route showed the sharpest decline at 8 percent, outpacing the global average. While month-on-month rates for this lane jumped 27 percent, it was still well below the 42 percent increase recorded during the e-commerce-driven peak last year.

From Northeast Asia, the picture was more stable. Freighter capacity was efficiently shifted from transpacific to Asia–Europe routes, smoothing air cargo yields. Spot rates into North America and Europe from Northeast Asia posted only single-digit declines year-on-year, while Black Friday retail season drove double-digit month-on-month gains.

Conversely, Southeast Asia routes to both Europe and North America suffered double-digit rate drops, likely due to additional capacity deployment chasing nearly 50 percent demand growth, combined with softer e-commerce flows affected by regulatory changes in Northeast Asia.

Backhaul trade lanes remained quiet, with modest rate changes as available capacity stayed ample.

The market’s resilience in November was supported by traditional shippers sticking to annual shipping cycles and better clarity around U.S. trade tariffs, according to Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw. While the EU’s long-term e-commerce data hub rollout won’t be complete until 2028, interim solutions proposed for 2026—including a flat EUR 2 handling fee—are not expected to significantly deter air cargo demand.

What could have a greater impact, van de Wouw noted, are measures that slow the supply chain or introduce substantial extra costs.

Looking ahead, van de Wouw projects low single-digit growth for air cargo in 2026. He warned that supply is likely to grow faster than demand, placing further downward pressure on rates.

“We expect supply to grow more than demand in 2026, and that will have an impact on rates. I also do not think low, single-digit demand growth will satisfy the appetite and ambition of freight forwarders, especially the listed ones that need to grow much faster in the market. So, the only way to do that is to grab market share, which would place a further downward pressure on rates in favour of shippers.”

He added that shippers are increasingly seeking Xeneta’s insights to understand forwarder pricing, while airlines are also coming to validate what they’re being told by intermediaries. The consensus, he says, is that 2 to 3 percent demand growth in 2026 would be a realistic outcome.

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