Geopolitical disruption is no longer an external shock to aviation. It is becoming a structural condition shaping how air cargo operates, where it flows, and how resilient the system can be under pressure. From the closure of Ukrainian and Russian airspace to instability across the Middle East, the industry is being forced to redraw its operational map in real time.

For Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the scale of that disruption is significant, particularly for cargo. “About 16 percent of global cargo traffic goes through the Middle East,” he noted.

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Airspace fragmentation and the redrawing of cargo routes

The impact of geopolitical conflict on aviation is often measured in cancelled flights or rerouted passengers. In cargo, the consequences run deeper.

Airspace closures compress available corridors, forcing aircraft into narrower routes and creating operational bottlenecks that can affect capacity, costs and reliability. Walsh pointed to the visibility of these shifts in real time.

“If you look at something like Flightradar24, you can see how the traffic has been squeezed into certain corridors,” he said.

What appears as a technical adjustment is, in practice, a fundamental reconfiguration of how global cargo moves. The closure of Russian and Ukrainian airspace in 2022 marked a turning point. Established east-west routings were no longer viable, forcing airlines to adopt longer flight paths, often at higher cost. More recently, tensions in the Middle East have introduced further uncertainty into a region that acts as a bridge between Asia, Europe and Africa.

For cargo operators, this is not simply a question of navigation. It is a question of network design. Schedules, aircraft utilisation, crew planning and hub strategies are all being reshaped by a more fragmented airspace environment. The result is a system that is increasingly reactive, adjusting to disruption rather than operating within stable parameters.

Ukraine, recovery and the question of readiness

While the war in Ukraine continues to reshape current operations, Walsh is already looking ahead to what comes next. The reopening of Ukrainian airspace, when it happens, will not be a gradual process. It will require rapid reactivation of an ecosystem that has been largely dormant.

That support is not limited to infrastructure or regulatory alignment as it extends to people. “The industry stands ready to support Ukraine when the time comes. We are already engaging with the Ukrainian authorities on how we can support the recovery of aviation in the country. There are many people who have left the industry, and we need to make sure they are ready to come back. We are looking at how our training programmes can support that, so that when the time comes, the industry is ready to restart operations quickly.”

IATA is already exploring how its training programmes can support that transition, ensuring that skills and certifications are in place when operations resume.The implication for the wider industry is clear. Recovery will not simply be about reopening routes. It will depend on workforce readiness, regulatory coordination and the ability to reintegrate Ukraine into global cargo networks quickly. For carriers and forwarders, that moment could present both opportunity and operational strain.

Digitalisation: progress without transformation

If geopolitical disruption is forcing change from the outside, digitalisation remains an internal challenge the industry has yet to fully resolve. Despite years of discussion, air cargo continues to lag behind the passenger sector in its adoption of digital processes.
While initiatives such as e-air waybills have made progress, the broader system remains fragmented, with inconsistent adoption across markets and stakeholders. For IATA, the role is not to build technology platforms but to create the standards that allow them to function.

“We are still too reliant on paper,” Walsh said. “Our role is to set the standards, and then allow others to build the solutions on top of that.”

The comparison with the transition to electronic ticketing in 2008 is instructive. That shift was ultimately driven by a hard deadline, forcing airlines and partners to adapt simultaneously. In cargo, Walsh acknowledged that a similar approach may be required.
“If you look at what happened with e-ticketing in 2008, that change only happened because we set a deadline. Sometimes the only way to drive change is to mandate it. We would prefer to encourage change, but the reality is that in some cases, you need to take a more directive approach to achieve progress.”

As cargo volumes grow, particularly through e-commerce, inefficiencies in documentation, data exchange and compliance create friction that limits scalability. In an environment already strained by external disruption, those inefficiencies become more visible and more costly.

Leadership in a system under pressure

Beyond strategy and systems, Walsh returned to a more fundamental point: the role of leadership in navigating uncertainty. Aviation, he argued, does not offer the luxury of stability. Change is constant, and often abrupt.

“Aviation is constantly evolving, and you have to be prepared to adapt. You have to be accessible. You have to be prepared to communicate, and not just when the news is good. Leadership requires openness, honesty, and the ability to deal with difficult situations as well as positive ones.”

For leaders, that means balancing immediate operational pressures with longer-term structural shifts. It also requires a level of openness that goes beyond traditional management.

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