By late 2025, global airfreight is no longer in recovery mode — but it is not yet entering a new growth cycle either. According to DHL Global Forwarding’s Airfreight State of the Industry – November 2025, the sector is settling into a structurally constrained, politically shaped environment where demand resilience masks underlying fragility.

Demand growth without momentum, capacity tightening and soft rates

Global air cargo demand continues to expand, but the pace has slowed markedly. Worldwide airfreight tonnage rose 4 percent year on year through October 2025, with growth flattening compared with September. October marked the third consecutive month of stable but unaccelerating growth, indicating that demand is holding up but lacking momentum.

DHL forecasts full-year 2025 growth of 3–5 percent, supported primarily by Asia-origin volumes, while warning that global economic softness, trade-policy uncertainty and renewed competition from ocean freight are limiting upside potential. The outlook for Q1 2026 suggests demand will continue to grow, but only at low single-digit rates, rather than experiencing a cyclical rebound.

At the same time, supply conditions are tightening. Global air cargo capacity declined by around 2 percent year on year in November 2025, following steady reductions since May. The most significant factor is a sharp contraction in freighter availability: dedicated freighter capacity fell 12 percent year on year, continuing a decline that has persisted since March. While passenger belly-hold capacity has partially offset the shortfall, it now accounts for 66 percent of total capacity, compared with 34 percent for freighters, underscoring the industry’s increasing reliance on passenger networks.

Despite tightening supply, freight rates remain under pressure. Global spot rates fell for the sixth consecutive month in October 2025, declining roughly 3 percent year on year to around US$2.58 per kilo, while contract rates dropped even faster, falling 8 percent year on year to approximately US$2.31 per kilo. On key lanes such as Asia–US, spot rates remain down 11 percent year on year, despite short-term week-on-week increases driven by localised volume recoveries.

The coexistence of lower capacity and soft pricing reflects subdued urgency in demand, with shippers maintaining leverage as long as volumes fail to accelerate materially

Asia’s dominance continues, but the centre of gravity is shifting

Asia Pacific remains the clear driver of global airfreight demand, but the report highlights a notable fragmentation within the region. Asia Pacific recorded 7 percent year-on-year growth, the strongest of any region, compared with 2 percent growth in Europe and 1 percent in the Americas.

However, traditional export powerhouses such as China, Hong Kong and South Korea are showing weaker or uneven growth on certain routes, while south-east Asian countries, Taiwan and parts of south Asia are posting stronger gains. This shift reflects a combination of manufacturing relocation, tariff-driven trade diversification and supply-chain restructuring, often referred to as “China+1” strategies.

This redistribution of volumes is reshaping global networks. Strong outbound growth from Asia continues to fuel intra-Asia, Asia–Europe and Asia–North America trade lanes, while Europe is also seeing increased demand towards Asia. As a result, logistics hubs outside traditional mega-gateways are gaining strategic importance.

The Middle East is emerging as a critical intermediary in this evolving landscape. Middle Eastern hubs are increasingly acting as conduits linking Asian production centres with Europe, Africa and beyond, particularly for time-sensitive and high-value cargo. During Q4 2025, several Middle Eastern markets experienced surging volumes, reaching what was described as a “breaking-point moment” as demand intensified ahead of peak season.

Carriers such as Etihad Cargo expanded freighter services in late October 2025, adding new routes to Europe and Asia to manage growing flows through the region. This trend reinforces the Middle East’s role as a stabilising node in an increasingly fragmented global trade environment.

Fleet modernisation takes centre stage as fuel risk eases

With capacity growth constrained, fleet strategy has become a key competitive differentiator. Recent commitments by carriers to modern, fuel-efficient aircraft include Air China Cargo’s order for six Airbus A350F freighters and Ethiopian Airlines’ expansion of its A350-900 fleet, announced at the Dubai Airshow in November 2025.

Industry-wide freighter growth is largely replacement-driven rather than expansion-driven, as airlines retire older aircraft and face delays in new-build and conversion programmes. This limits the potential for rapid capacity increases while reinforcing the importance of operational efficiency.

Fuel, traditionally a major volatility factor, appears less threatening in the near term. While jet fuel prices remain elevated compared with pre-pandemic levels, their trajectory is mixed and increasingly predictable. Brent crude oil is forecast to average around US$54–55 per barrel in 2026, with longer-term projections suggesting further downside as global supply outpaces demand.

Lower crude prices could reduce jet fuel costs, though refinery constraints and maintenance disruptions may limit the extent of price declines in certain regions. Overall, fuel is shifting from a primary risk driver to a manageable cost variable, placing greater emphasis on fleet efficiency and network optimisation.

Trade policy and geopolitics define the 2026 outlook

Beyond economics, trade policy and geopolitics are increasingly shaping airfreight demand. The World Trade Organization recently downgraded its 2026 global merchandise trade growth forecast to just 0.5 percent, down from an earlier estimate of 1.8 percent, citing rising tariffs and policy fragmentation.

Trade covered by tariffs in G20 economies increased four times faster from mid-October 2024 to mid-October 2025 than in the previous reporting period — the largest increase on record. These pressures are encouraging companies to diversify supply chains, shifting volumes towards new regional hubs such as Vietnam, India and the UAE.

Looking ahead, 2026 is shaping up as a low-growth, high-complexity year. Capacity is expected to grow modestly at 1–2 percent year on year, rates may remain soft, and geopolitical risks — including tensions in east Asia and trade-policy uncertainty — could disrupt established lanes with little warning.

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