• Chapman Freeborn is moving beyond traditional ad hoc charter brokerage towards a broader capacity-management model spanning ACMI, onboard courier and Next Flight Out services, with specialised offerings now accounting for most of its revenue.
• E-commerce and regulatory changes are fragmenting global cargo flows, requiring greater flexibility as capacity shifts between established and emerging trade lanes; the market is expected to stabilise around a new equilibrium after the current adjustment period.
• Widebody freighter capacity is becoming a structural constraint, with demand growth outpacing fleet expansion, limited passenger-to-freighter conversions and an ageing fleet. This is increasing interest in alternative capacity such as 767 freighters and A330 conversions.

Chapman Freeborn’s operating model is evolving in line with a broader structural shift across the airfreight charter market, where traditional ad hoc brokerage is steadily giving way to multi-layered service integration. What was once a predominantly charter-led business is now increasingly defined by specialist logistics products, ACMI structures and time-critical execution services. The result is a market that is less about singular aircraft placement and more about continuous capacity management across fragmented demand profiles.

Charter remains foundational, but its relative weight within the revenue mix is diminishing as value migrates into adjacent services that require deeper operational coordination and more embedded customer integration. The implication is a revenue model that behaves less like a broker and more like a capacity advisor  operating across multiple parallel networks.

“Charter is still the bread and butter for our business, but over time it has really changed a lot. Around 25 percent of our business revenue is now traditional ad hoc charter work, while the rest sits in specialised added value activities such as ACMI and onboard courier solutions. We have also expanded into NFO, where shipments move through next available capacity without a dedicated courier. This is where the market is going, with services becoming more fragmented and increasingly specialised,” Eric Erbacher, Chairman of the Board at Chapman Freeborn, explained.

This fragmentation is also reshaping competitive dynamics. Market advantage is increasingly determined by responsiveness and orchestration capability rather than simple access to aircraft. Operators capable of combining different service lines into a single coordinated response are better positioned to capture , time-critical flows, particularly during periods of disruption when conventional scheduled networks lose elasticity.

“We operate differently from a scheduled airline because we maintain access to flexible capacity across the market.. When geopolitical tensions or crises emerge, we can arrange additional capacity on an ad hoc basis very quickly.  That flexibility is central to how we support customers in volatile conditions. It allows us to act when traditional networks are constrained,” he explained.

Reshaping global cargo flows
E-commerce continues to be one of the most powerful structural drivers of airfreight demand, but its trajectory is becoming increasingly shaped by regulatory intervention rather than pure consumption growth. Successive policy adjustments have materially altered global flow patterns, shifting volumes away from historically dominant corridors and dispersing them into secondary trade lanes. This has created a more fragmented demand geography, with capacity now redistributed across multiple regions rather than concentrated on a handful of established routes.

The latest wave of regulatory tightening is adding another layer of complexity. As compliance frameworks become more stringent, e-commerce platforms are being forced to recalibrate their operating models, leading to short-term disruption in cargo output. The adjustment period is uneven, with different markets absorbing regulatory change at different speeds, resulting in temporary inefficiencies across global networks.

“E-commerce has been a big theme since around 2021, when growth really accelerated after COVID. It has changed again with regulatory adjustments, including the suspension measures last year that shifted capacity flows significantly. We have seen Trans Pacific volumes move into Europe, Africa and Latin America as a result. The latest tightening in Europe will again reshape inflows and will take a few months for the market to adjust,” Erbacher outlined.

The operational consequence is a lag between policy implementation and network stabilisation. Capacity providers are increasingly required to manage volatility not only in demand but in the timing of structural realignment. This elevates the importance of flexible deployment strategies and rapid repositioning capability, particularly in markets where regulatory change can quickly distort established flow patterns.

Despite near-term disruption, the market is moving towards a new equilibrium rather than contraction. The adjustment phase is expected to be temporary, with underlying demand fundamentals remaining intact once operational recalibration is complete.

“I am confident the market will rebalance after a short adjustment period. E-commerce players are already adapting to the new regulatory environment, although it will take time for them to reset operations. Once this happens, we expect flows to stabilise again at a new equilibrium. For e-commerce, the next few months will be about adaptation rather than growth,” he stated.

Capacity strategy in widebody freighters
The most acute constraint facing global airfreight is no longer demand volatility but structural scarcity in widebody freighter capacity. The interplay between limited new aircraft production, constrained passenger-to-freighter conversion pipelines and an ageing installed fleet is creating a persistent supply gap. This is not a short-term imbalance but a multi-year structural condition that is already influencing fleet planning, leasing markets and network design.

Three simultaneous pressures are shaping this environment: subdued capacity growth relative to demand, restricted conversion availability due to strong passenger airline economics and the progressive ageing of legacy widebody aircraft types. Together, these forces are tightening supply at precisely the moment demand continues to expand above historical averages.

“There are three forces shaping the widebody freighter market at the moment. First, additional net capacity growth over the next cycle is expected to remain below or at around 1 percent compound annual growth rate, while demand is closer to 3 to 4 percent. That creates a significant structural gap. Second, passenger-to-freighter conversions are constrained because passenger airlines are retaining aircraft. Third, the ageing widebody fleet, including MD-11s and other ageing widebody freighters, is limiting replacement supply,” Erbacher laid out.

The resulting imbalance is forcing a reassessment of fleet development strategies across the sector. Securing additional widebody assets has become increasingly challenging, pushing operators to explore alternative capacity sources. Medium-haul freighter platforms are gaining renewed strategic relevance as carriers adapt to constrained supply conditions.

This shift is a pragmatic response to structural limitations rather than a change in strategic ambition. The focus is moving towards flexibility and optionality in fleet composition, ensuring capacity resilience even in a tight aircraft supply environment.

“Across the industry, securing additional widebody assets is becoming increasingly difficult, and that is shaping planning assumptions across the industry. This shortage is forcing operators to rethink where growth comes from. Instead of relying solely on widebody expansion, the market is looking more seriously at alternative capacity solutions, such as 767 freighters and A330 conversions. The next phase of the market will be defined by that shift,” he concluded.

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