• A new Cassel Salpeter & Co. report says aircraft and engine shortages are reshaping the aviation industry, with global commercial aircraft backlogs exceeding 17,000 aircraft and engine supply emerging as the sector’s biggest bottleneck.
• The report forecasts global MRO spending will grow from $136 billion in 2025 to $193 billion by 2036, as airlines extend fleet life, increase spare engine inventories and invest more heavily in maintenance and aftermarket services.
• According to Cassel Salpeter, supply chain constraints are expected to persist for years, driving demand for engine repairs, used serviceable material (USM), PMA parts and other aftermarket solutions while airlines adapt to limited aircraft and engine availability.

A global shortage of aircraft, engines and spare parts is reshaping the aviation industry, with airlines increasingly extending the life of existing fleets and redirecting investment towards maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) rather than new aircraft, according to a new report by aviation investment banking firm Cassel Salpeter & Co. The report, Supply Chain Constraints Are Reshaping Aviation, said global commercial aircraft backlogs have exceeded 17,000 aircraft, equivalent to around 12 years of production at current manufacturing rates. Despite strong demand driven by fleet expansion, recovering passenger traffic and resilient cargo markets, manufacturers and suppliers continue to struggle to keep pace.

Cassel Salpeter estimates airlines incurred more than $11 billion in additional supply chain-related costs in 2025, including higher maintenance expenses, leased engines and spare parts stockpiling.  Airbus and Boeing remain dependent on engine deliveries from suppliers including CFM, Pratt & Whitney and GE Aerospace, while next-generation GTF and LEAP engines are requiring more frequent maintenance due to durability issues.

The report notes that around 60 completed Airbus aircraft remained without engines during 2025, while more than 3,500 commercial engines are awaiting castings, forgings and other components. Engine overhaul turnaround times have also increased significantly, rising from 60-90 days in 2019 to between 180 and 240 days today.

According to Cassel Salpeter, the shortages are driving airlines to retain older aircraft beyond planned retirement dates, increasing demand for engine leasing, spare parts and maintenance services while reducing operational flexibility.

Also global MRO spending will increase from a record of approximately $136 billion in 2025 to around $193 billion by 2036, with engine maintenance remaining the largest segment. Engine-related MRO spending alone is expected to account for roughly $103 billion by 2036. Beyond traditional maintenance, the report highlights growing demand for alternative aftermarket solutions. The market for Used Serviceable Material (USM) is projected to grow from around $8 billion in 2025 to more than $10.8 billion by 2033, while the Parts Manufacturer Approval (PMA) market is expected to expand from approximately $11.8 billion to more than $16.1 billion by 2034. Demand for Designated Engineering Representative (DER) repairs is also increasing as operators seek to extend component life and reduce dependence on original equipment manufacturers.

Cassel Salpeter said airlines are responding by extending fleet life, increasing spare engine inventories, diversifying suppliers and securing long-term maintenance agreements. MRO providers are expanding facilities and technician recruitment, while suppliers are increasing inventories and turning to alternative sourcing strategies. It concludes that supply chain constraints are likely to persist for several years, with access to aircraft, engines, parts and maintenance capacity becoming as strategically important as access to customers.

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