• Global demand rose 3.9 percent year on year, led by Asia–North America, while capacity grew just 1.7 percent, keeping load factors high.
• Higher ocean freight rates are making airfreight more competitive, while fuel costs and constrained belly capacity are putting pressure on carriers.
• Tighter customs, e-commerce and sustainability requirements are increasing data demands, while documentation errors and legacy systems continue to cause delays.

Air cargo demand is continuing to grow despite geopolitical disruption, changing customs rules and rising operating costs, but the market is becoming increasingly dependent on a small number of strong trade lanes and on carriers’ ability to manage tighter capacity and more complex data requirements.

Global air cargo demand increased by 3.9 percent year on year in July and August, while capacity rose 1.7 percent. The resulting imbalance pushed the global cargo load factor to almost 70.5 percent.

Asia–North America was the strongest major corridor, growing 9.2 percent and recording its sixth consecutive month of growth. The trade lane accounted for 23.5 percent of global air cargo in 2025, with flows linked to artificial intelligence and semiconductors providing an important source of demand.

“What is quite interesting is that there was a lot of pessimism over the past few months, given the geopolitical challenges and the changes to de minimis. Yet our industry continues to adapt, and this corridor continues to grow. AI and semiconductor flows are very important factors behind the continued growth from Asia. So despite the uncertainty, we are still seeing strong trade flows on some of the key corridors,” Alina Fetisova, IATA’s Regional Cargo Manager Europe, Middle East and Africa, said.

Europe–Asia has also continued to expand, marking 41 consecutive months of growth, although the rate of expansion is slowing, with the moderation partly due to the end of the de minimis exemption on 1 July, with cargo flows adjusting to the new regulatory environment.

Other corridors are performing less consistently. Europe–North America remains positive, while Europe–Middle East, Middle East–Asia and Africa–Asia have contracted sharply.

The disruption to maritime trade is also altering the competitive position of air cargo. Rising ocean freight rates are narrowing the price differential between the two modes, particularly on Asia–Europe services, with Asia–Europe container rates having risen by 20 to 40 percent year on year, increasing the incentive to move some shipments from sea to air.

At the same time, higher fuel costs are putting pressure on airline economics. Fuel costs increased 12.2 percent month on month, while cargo yields remained 24.7 percent above July 2025 levels.

“Air cargo is becoming relatively more price-competitive, largely because of increasing sea freight rates. Maritime disruptions have boosted demand for air cargo and are narrowing the gap between sea freight and airfreight. This is supporting a modal shift towards air. The disruption is not positive from a fuel-price perspective, but it is creating an opportunity for air cargo by changing the economics between the two modes,” Fetisova explained.

Freighters are capturing much of the additional demand, having accounted for the majority of incremental growth, with Europe–Asia responsible for around two-thirds of the increase. Passenger-network disruption, Middle East groundings and constrained belly capacity are contributing to the imbalance.

The market is also facing a less visible constraint: the ability to provide accurate shipment data. Customs authorities are demanding more information earlier in the supply chain, while e-commerce reforms, parcel taxation, sustainability reporting and rules-of-origin requirements are increasing the amount of data that logistics companies must collect and exchange.

60 to 70 percent of shipments still contain at least one documentation error, potentially causing three to five days of delay at customs. Only 27.5 percent of shipment declarations are accurate, highlighting the gap between the industry’s growing data requirements and its existing systems.

IATA is promoting its ONE Record standard as a response, allowing shipment information to be shared through a common digital model rather than through traditional messages, emails and separate data formats.

Technology adoption is also moving faster. IATA’s Air Cargo Technology Trends Radar, based on input from around 120 industry participants, found growing expectations around artificial intelligence, automated vehicles and robotics. Technologies previously expected to take five to ten years to reach implementation are increasingly being placed on a less-than-five-year timeline.

“There is an increasing need for data, and for that data to be available earlier in the process. We are still operating with many legacy technologies that lack the tools needed to handle today’s data demands. A shared, open data standard gives each actor in the supply chain access to the same shipment information as it moves through the network. The objective is to create a common digital language that can support both operational requirements and the increasing regulatory demands being placed on the industry,” Fetisova concluded.

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