• Xeneta now expects shipper long-term air freight rates to increase 5 percent to 15 percent in 2026 after revising its outlook following disruption caused by the Middle East conflict.
• The report forecasts demand growth toward the upper end of 2 percent to 3 percent, while capacity growth remains constrained after 12 percent of global air cargo capacity was temporarily removed.
• AI-driven semiconductor shipments continue to support air cargo demand, while e-commerce volumes weaken as regulatory changes reshape low-value cross-border trade.

Xeneta, the ocean and air freight rate intelligence solution, has published the Air Freight Outlook 2026 Mid-Year Update, revising the full-year 2026 forecast issued in December 2025 to reflect the ongoing impact of conflict in the Middle East on rates, demand and capacity.

Shipper long-term rates, previously forecast to fall 5 percent to 10 percent in 2026, are now expected to rise 5 percent to 15 percent, driven primarily by supply chain disruption following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East in February.

Xeneta also now forecasts full-year demand growth toward the higher end of the 2 percent to 3 percent range published in December 2025, while capacity growth is expected toward the lower end of a revised 2 percent to 3 percent range, down from the previous 3 percent to 4 percent forecast.

The escalation of the Middle East conflict on 28 February removed 12 percent of global air cargo capacity overnight. As a result, global air cargo supply grew by just 1 percent during the first half of 2026.

Demand increased 4 percent over the same period, exceeding the original full-year forecast of 2 percent to 3 percent.

The supply-demand imbalance pushed rates higher across the market, with global air cargo rates, combining spot and long-term contracts, rising 17 percent year on year in the first half of 2026.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer, said: “On 27 February I would have bet on the Netherlands winning the World Cup before I put money on air rates jumping 40 percent. Yet that is what happened, with global spot rates up around 40 percent year on year in May.”

AI-related demand continues to strengthen. Global semiconductor sales more than doubled year on year in April 2026, rising 106 percent, while AI-related goods account for less than 10 percent of total air cargo volumes.

By contrast, China’s low-value and e-commerce exports fell 7 percent year on year in May 2026, marking a sixth consecutive monthly decline.

The post Xeneta raises 2026 air freight outlook as Middle East conflict pushes rates higher appeared first on Air Cargo Week.