• Even as global trade growth weakens, airfreight demand remains supported by high-value, time-critical goods—particularly semiconductors, e-commerce and AI-linked hardware.
• Aircraft shortages, delayed freighter programmes and limited conversion feedstock are keeping supply tight, sustaining high load factors and supporting yields.
• While driving cargo demand, the surge in data-centre energy consumption is intensifying competition for renewables, complicating SAF scaling and aviation’s decarbonisation path.

Airfreight has once again emerged as the quiet stabiliser of global trade, absorbing shocks, compressing timelines and enabling supply chains to adapt in near real time. The latest industry outlook suggests that, despite a cooling macroeconomic backdrop heading into 2026, the sector’s role is becoming more—not less—structural.

At the height of the 2025 tariff cycle, shippers accelerated imports to beat policy deadlines, driving a surge in time-critical movements. Airfreight proved indispensable in that front-loading phase, ensuring goods reached destination markets ahead of regulatory cut-offs while also enabling exporters—particularly in Asia—to rapidly redirect flows toward alternative trading partners. The agility on display reinforced a long-standing truth: when certainty collapses, speed commands a premium.

That premium is holding. While global merchandise trade is expected to slow sharply, with growth dropping to well below 1 percent in 2026, air cargo demand is forecast to expand by around 2.6 percent. The divergence reflects a deeper shift in cargo composition. High-value, low-weight goods—semiconductors, servers, telecoms equipment—are increasingly dominating volumes, alongside structurally embedded e-commerce traffic. These are commodities for which inventory risk outweighs transport cost, keeping airfreight firmly in play.

Artificial intelligence is central to this transition. Investment across chips, computing infrastructure and data centres is generating substantial uplift in trade flows linked to the digital economy. For air cargo operators, this is translating into consistent demand for precision logistics, temperature control, and rapid replenishment cycles across a geographically dispersed supply chain.

Yet the same AI boom is introducing a less visible constraint. Data centres are driving a sharp increase in electricity demand, intensifying competition for renewable energy. This has direct implications for aviation’s decarbonisation trajectory. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), widely viewed as the cornerstone of emissions reduction in long-haul aviation, relies on access to renewable inputs and capital investment that is already lagging requirements. As energy markets tighten, SAF production risks being crowded out, prolonging the sector’s reliance on conventional jet fuel and embedding higher cost structures over the medium term.

Capacity, meanwhile, remains the defining operational constraint. Aircraft shortages—stemming from delayed deliveries, engine maintenance backlogs and persistent supply chain disruptions—are limiting both passenger and freighter fleet expansion. Widebody freighter programmes continue to face multi-year delays, while the pool of suitable passenger aircraft for conversion is shrinking as airlines retain older units in service longer than planned.

The result is a structurally tight market. Cargo capacity growth is lagging demand, pushing operators to maximise utilisation of existing assets. Bellyhold capacity is expanding as passenger networks recover, but not at a pace sufficient to offset freighter constraints. Dedicated freighter growth, in particular, remains subdued.

This imbalance is sustaining elevated load factors and supporting freight yields, which remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels despite some softening through 2025. While ocean freight rates have eased—improving the relative competitiveness of maritime transport—airfreight continues to command a critical role for time-sensitive shipments and high-margin goods.

From a network perspective, Asia-Pacific is once again the engine of growth. Trade lane expansion across Asia-Europe and intra-Asia corridors reflects both manufacturing realignment and strong demand for electronics and e-commerce flows. Other regions are expected to post more modest gains, with North America facing headwinds linked to tariffs and softer domestic demand.

Financially, cargo remains a key contributor to airline resilience. Although its share of total revenue has normalised from pandemic highs, it continues to outperform historical averages. In an environment characterised by softening passenger yields and rising non-fuel costs, cargo’s relatively stable pricing and demand profile provide an important buffer.

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