• The suspension of the US de minimis exemption for goods under US$800, effective 29th August 2025, has disrupted airfreight across the Americas, cutting off the duty-free lifeline that underpinned cross-border e-commerce growth.
• E-commerce-driven air cargo volumes, particularly on China–US lanes, have collapsed—volumes fell over 50 percent year-on-year—forcing carriers and logistics hubs to rethink capacity, routes, and business models.
• Latin American exporters face higher costs and bureaucracy, while nearshoring to Mexico offers limited relief; legal challenges continue, and carriers are adjusting strategies with data-led route optimisation and capacity shifts to mitigate the long-term impact.

While the world is fixated on the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, a quieter and perhaps more consequential policy remains unscathed. The suspension of de minimis is still at play, reshaping airfreight across the Americas and showing no signs of going away.

When President Trump signed the executive order reaffirming the suspension of duty-free de minimis treatment on 20th February 2026, the same day as the Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling, it barely made the headlines. That was a mistake. It should’ve been front page news. For airfreight operators across the Americas, the de minimis suspension could end up being the more lasting disruption of the two.

The rule itself was straightforward. Under Section 321 of the Tariff Act, goods valued at US$800 or less could enter the United States duty-free with minimal paperwork. What it became, over a decade, was the backbone of cross-border e-commerce. According to US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), parcels entering under the exemption grew by more than 600 percent between 2015 and 2024, from 139 million to over 1.36 billion annually, more than four million packages every operating day. The global suspension came into effect on 29th August 2025. The Supreme Court ruling did not touch it.

Airfreight built a business model around it

E-commerce was not just a growth driver for airfreight, it was the growth driver. According to Xeneta, China-US e-commerce alone accounted for roughly three percent of global airfreight volumes before the ban, with e-commerce representing about 50 percent of all shipments on the China-US trade lane. When the exemption ended for China and Hong Kong in May 2025, UPS CEO Carol Tomé told investors on the company’s second quarter earnings call that the China-to-US trade lane had seen average daily volumes drop 34.8 percent in May and June as a direct result. By November, Chinese e-commerce exports to the US plunged 52 percent year-on-year, the steepest declines on record.

Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw put it plainly: “e-commerce has been the main driver behind air cargo demand. If you suddenly and dramatically remove the oxygen from that demand, it will cause a seismic shock to the market.”

Americas angle

Miami International Airport, the undisputed air cargo gateway to Latin America, handles nearly 3.5 million tonnes of freight a year with international traffic driven primarily by Latin American partners. The de minimis suspension cuts across that relationship both ways.

For Latin American sellers shipping low-value goods into the US market, the exemption was a lifeline. Colombian artisans, Brazilian fashion brands, Mexican handicraft exporters, businesses that built direct-to-consumer models around the US$800 threshold now face full duty treatment, formal customs entry procedures and the administrative costs that come with them. The playing field that once allowed a small seller to compete with a power player has been levelled, just not in the way those sellers would have wanted.

The nearshoring boom provides a cushion, though a thin one. As Chinese e-commerce platforms establish warehousing in Mexico to preserve USMCA-qualifying access, Mexican logistics hubs are seeing increased activity. But moving pallets is not the same as moving parcels, and it is parcels that airfreight misses most. Van de Wouw noted it was “astonishing” how quickly China’s platforms quickly pivoted toward European consumers after the US ban, a pivot that redirected capacity away from America’s lanes entirely.

Legal grey area

The suspension is not necessarily settled law. Ongoing litigation in Axle of Dearborn, Inc. v. Department of Commerce argues that IEEPA cannot be used to revoke a tariff exemption any more than it can impose a tariff. With the Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling now on the books, some legal experts think the same logic could be used to challenge the de minimis suspension too. Whether that holds up in court is anyone’s guess, nobody is calling this settled just yet.

What operators should be watching

Markets are forecasting a more cautious 2026, projecting two to three percent volume growth, down from four percent in 2025, and the de minimis ban is a big reason why. Carriers that built capacity around e-commerce demand need a new playbook. American Airlines Cargo’s expansion of Latin America widebody capacity, leaning into data analytics and route optimisation, points to where some of that adjustment is already happening.

The US$800 threshold was never just a number. It was a trade architecture. Now that it’s gone, the airfreight industry across the Americas is still working out how to replace it.

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